3. The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

　　"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."

　　Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

　　步骤：滑板增多之后生意下降;店主的话 → 滑板导致生意下降

　　假设：没有它因;店主的话可靠

　　反例：店主经营不善;经济危机;网购增多

　　补充证据：商店策略的变化;社会经济环境的变化;消费习惯的变化

　　步骤：滑板增多之后垃圾和破坏公物增多→滑板导致

　　假设：没有它因

　　反例：管理不善

　　补充证据：调查plaza对于环境维护的投入的变化

　　步骤：滑板导致生意下降→禁止滑板可以使生意恢复

　　假设：滑板没有造成plaza声誉的毁灭性打击

　　反例：滑板彻底使得消费者对plaza失去兴趣，并在其它地方形成了新的商业区，形成了固定的消费行为

　　补充证据：消费者目前有没有形成新的消费区域

编辑：张雨

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